Home Prices Are Set to Plummet in 300 Housing Markets. But You Know Where They Won't? Walnut Creek, Concord, Pleasant Hill and Martinez.
Yes, the headline is real. A bombshell new forecast from Zillow finds home prices declining in 309 out of 894 housing markets it tracks through March 2027. That is more than one in three American housing markets heading into decline over the next year.
Go ahead and read that number again. Three hundred and nine markets.
Now take a breath... because Walnut Creek, Concord, Pleasant Hill and Martinez are not on that list. And understanding why is one of the most important things you can do before making any real estate decision in Contra Costa County right now.
The Markets That Are Actually Declining... And Why
The worst pain is concentrated in pandemic-era boomtowns across the Sun Belt and Gulf Coast. Houma, Louisiana leads the nation in projected decline at negative 7 percent. Lake Charles, Louisiana follows at negative 5.6 percent. Then Austin, Texas at negative 4.6 percent. New Orleans at negative 4.4 percent. Shreveport at negative 3.6 percent. Even Denver is projected down 3 percent. Liftoff Agent
What do these markets have in common? Every single one of them experienced an unsustainable explosion in demand and price between 2020 and 2022... followed by the brutal correction that always follows when a market gets ahead of its fundamentals.
Austin tells the story most brutally. Between 2020 and 2022, Austin's median home price rocketed from $325,000 to a peak of $550,000... a gain of nearly 70 percent in two years. Then came the steepest single-year correction in the market's recorded history... a 15.5 percent plunge in 2023, followed by further declines in 2024 and 2025. The city now carries 128 percent more sellers than buyers, with homes averaging more than 90 days on the market. Liftoff Agent
In Louisiana, the numbers are staggering for different reasons. The average homeowner's insurance premium hit $10,964 per year in 2024, and in 30 to 40 percent of Louisiana mortgage transactions, deals are now collapsing entirely because of insurance costs alone. In Houma specifically, 99 percent of properties face a risk of severe flooding over the next 30 years. Liftoff Agent
These are not abstract market forces. They are specific, identifiable problems... overbuilding, catastrophic insurance costs, flood risk, and the implosion of pandemic-era hype... that have nothing to do with Contra Costa County.
Nationally, Redfin data shows approximately 630,000 more home sellers than buyers... the largest gap recorded since Redfin began keeping that data in 2013. Prices are falling, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said, in places where sellers outnumber buyers. Liftoff Agent
Now let us look at where sellers do not outnumber buyers.
What Is Actually Happening in Walnut Creek Right Now
Walnut Creek home prices rose 9 percent year over year as of March 2026, with a median sale price of $845,000. Homes are selling in an average of 12 days. There is no inventory glut. There is no overbuilding. There are no catastrophic insurance costs driven by hurricane risk or coastal flooding. There is consistent demand from buyers who want BART access, top-rated schools, a walkable downtown, and the quality of life that Walnut Creek has delivered reliably for decades.
This is not a market where sellers outnumber buyers. This is a market where buyers compete seriously for well-priced homes and sellers who price correctly move their properties in less than two weeks.
What Is Actually Happening in Pleasant Hill Right Now
Pleasant Hill homes are receiving an average of 7 offers and selling in 8 days, with a median sale price of $1.2 million that is up 3.1 percent year over year. Eight days on market. Seven offers per home. This is not a market in distress. This is a market in demand.
Pleasant Hill offers families something Austin could never fully deliver... established, livable neighborhoods with good schools, no overbuilding risk, and genuine community infrastructure that was built over generations rather than thrown up during a two-year speculative boom.
What Is Actually Happening in Concord Right Now
Concord scores 93 out of 100 on Redfin's competition index. The median sale price sits at $725,000, with 56 percent of homes selling above asking price and properties closing at 101 percent of list price on average. Two BART stations connect Concord to San Francisco in 40 to 50 minutes.
Concord did not overbuild during the pandemic. Concord does not have 128 percent more sellers than buyers. Concord does not have homeowners walking away from deals because their insurance bill is approaching $11,000 per year. Concord has consistent, fundamentals-driven demand from buyers who want more space per dollar than the inner Bay Area can provide... and that demand has not gone anywhere.
What Is Actually Happening in Martinez Right Now
Martinez sits quietly with a median home value around $800,000, a charming waterfront downtown, larger lots, and more architectural character than almost anywhere else in the East Bay at comparable prices. Homes are moving in around 17 days with steady demand from buyers who have discovered what locals already know... Martinez is deeply livable and genuinely undervalued relative to the quality of life it delivers.
The Bigger Truth Behind the Headlines
Of the 894 markets Zillow tracks, 572 are expected to rise through March 2027. Only 309 are projected to decline. Fourteen are expected to hold flat. Liftoff Agent
That means the majority of American housing markets are not declining. The headline about 300 markets plummeting is true and it is also profoundly misleading if you read it as a statement about the entire housing market. It is a statement about specific markets with specific problems... overbuilding, insurance crises, flood risk, and the hangover from unsustainable pandemic speculation.
Contra Costa County has none of those problems.
What Contra Costa County has is supply-constrained land, consistent employer-driven demand, BART access that makes regional employment centers reachable, school systems that families choose specifically, and decades of appreciation that did not require a pandemic to manufacture.
The markets that are surging right now... Syracuse, New York projecting 5 percent gains, Rockford, Illinois and Atlantic City both at 4.5 percent... are surging because they have genuine economic catalysts and real, durable demand. They are not recovering from a speculative bubble. They are delivering value that matches what buyers actually need. Liftoff Agent
Walnut Creek, Concord, Pleasant Hill and Martinez have been doing exactly that for far longer than those cities have been making headlines.
Why Local Data Is the Only Data That Actually Matters
Here is the question every homebuyer and homeowner in Contra Costa County should be asking when they see a headline like this: does this apply to my zip code?
In almost every case... the answer is no. The markets declining are declining for reasons specific to their geography, their insurance markets, their overbuilding patterns, and their dependence on speculative demand that evaporated when mortgage rates rose. None of those forces are at work in Walnut Creek or Concord or Pleasant Hill or Martinez.
You are not buying a share of the national housing index. You are buying one specific home on one specific street in one specific city. The national data can tell you nothing useful about whether your home in Walnut Creek will be worth more or less in five years. Your local market data can.
And locally... the data is clear. Demand is real. Supply is constrained. Prices are holding or rising. And the fundamentals that drive long-term appreciation in Contra Costa County have not changed because of what happened in Austin or Houma or New Orleans.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home prices going to drop in Walnut Creek CA? No. Walnut Creek home prices were up 9 percent year over year as of March 2026 with a median of $845,000 and homes selling in 12 days. The markets projected to decline through March 2027 are concentrated in the Sun Belt and Gulf Coast... markets that overbuilt during the pandemic and face rising insurance and flood costs that do not apply to Contra Costa County.
Which housing markets are expected to decline in 2026 and 2027? Zillow projects declines in 309 of 894 markets it tracks. The hardest hit are Houma, Louisiana at negative 7 percent, Lake Charles at negative 5.6 percent, Austin at negative 4.6 percent, New Orleans at negative 4.4 percent, and Denver at negative 3 percent. These markets share specific problems including overbuilding, high insurance costs, flood risk, and excess seller inventory that do not exist in Contra Costa County.
Is Concord CA a good place to buy a home when 300 markets are declining? Yes. Concord is not among the declining markets. It scores 93 out of 100 on Redfin's competition index with 56 percent of homes selling above asking price. The markets declining are doing so because of overbuilding and specific regional pressures that have no bearing on the East Bay.
Why are some housing markets declining while others keep rising? Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather identified the core driver: prices fall where sellers outnumber buyers. Markets like Austin accumulated massive excess inventory during the pandemic and now have 128 percent more sellers than buyers with homes sitting for 90 days. Markets like Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill maintain genuine demand relative to available supply and do not face that imbalance.
Should I wait to buy in Pleasant Hill or Martinez because of the national housing market news? No. National housing market news reflects an average of 894 very different markets. The cities declining are doing so because of problems specific to their geography and market history. Pleasant Hill and Martinez have different fundamentals... consistent demand, supply constraints, BART access, and strong schools... that support prices independent of what is happening in Louisiana or Texas.
How do I know if my specific city is affected by housing market declines? Look at local data rather than national headlines. Days on market, list-to-sale price ratios, seller-to-buyer ratios, and year-over-year median price changes in your specific zip code tell you what is actually happening where you live. A local mortgage advisor who tracks Contra Costa County specifically can walk you through those numbers in a single conversation.
Ready to Talk About What the Local Data Actually Shows for You?
The national headlines are designed to get clicks. Your zip code is designed to be your home. Before you make any decision based on a scary national forecast, spend 15 minutes looking at what is actually happening in Walnut Creek, Concord, Pleasant Hill or Martinez specifically.
Sean Herrero at 925.575.0637 or sean.herrero@ccm.com
